Weblog
02/03/07 02:23 AM: War with Iran?
I’m a bit concerned we are going to get into a war with Iran.
Now, I’m not one to say I like Iran. It’s difficult to differentiate Iran from, say, Saudi Arabia.
However, there are several problems with going to war with Iran. These include:
1. Iran has a real military.
2. Iran has allies.
3. Iran could potentially deploy weapons of mass destruction.
Now some people will make the argument that points 1 & 3 justify going to war. I’m going to be super selfish and argue that however much we don’t like Iran, it’s not worth Vietnam-sized casualties (or more), and potentially sparking a world war.
If it’s going to happen, it would most likely unfold somehow like this:
1. Israel conducts airstrikes against Iranian nuclear plants. This attack may involve the use of tactical nuclear weapons. Estimated Iranian casualties go as high as 1 million.
2. Iran, unlike Iraq, can deliver a counter-strike. The United States, as an ally of Israel, launches airstrikes against targets inside Iran, again potentially using tactical nuclear weapons.
3. We have more than 100,000 troops sitting in Iraq, right next door. Sitting ducks, if you will. Iranian counter-attacks against our troops in Iraq, and against oil production facilities all around the gulf region.
4. Within a few weeks, potentially, a million or so people are dead, and gas is upwards of $10/gallon. Terrorist attacks in the United States are likely, as well as in Britain and elsewhere.
Would China or Russia get involved as well? Most likely not overtly, but covertly certainly. There would be, of course, potential for this to spread, and we end up going to war with countries we certainly don’t want to be fighting.
Of course, the scenario could also happen that we attack Iran following a terrorist attack in the United States. I am going to say this is unlikely, but not off the table. It’s more likely we will see an Israeli led-strike, leading to U.S.-involvement.
The concerning part of all of this is that the President requires no Congressional approval to attack Iran, and even if he did, he would most certainly get it if it was the result of an Israeli-initiated strike.
It’s my understanding that going to war with Iran would be a very, very, bad thing. This reminds me of a quotation from the movie The Hunt for Red October, “This business will get out of control. It will get out of control, and we’ll be lucky to live through it.”
I’d put odds of a strike on Iran at 25% before the end of March.
Flora
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